Banking Woes Could Slow Global Growth

Recent banking industry turmoil could place an immediate drag on global economic growth, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The Washington, D.C.-based monitor of the international monetary system and global economies projected on Tuesday total growth of 2.8% in economic output this year and 3% in 2024, both down from 3.4% in 2022.

The agency said fallout from failures by Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse is expected to reverberate well beyond those banks’ home countries, even after U.S. and European regulators took decisive actions to minimize ripple damage.

“Market sentiment remains fragile, and strains are still evident across a number of institutions and markets, as investors reassess the fundamental health of the financial system,” an IMF statement said. IMF analysts said it remains to be seen whether the latest bank issues are isolated incidents or “a harbinger of more systemic stress that will test the resilience of the global financial system.”

In its own statement Tuesday, consulting firm Oxford Economics said the IMF’s forecast “still looks too optimistic over the next two years.” Oxford researchers said the agency’s numbers “underestimate the impact that tightening in financial conditions will have on advanced economies” in the second half of 2023 and into 2024.

Oxford Economics is predicting global GDP growth of 2.3% this year and 2.8% in 2024, both relatively weak by historical standards.

Office REIT To Buy Healthcare Investment Firm

Office Properties Income Trust is moving to extend its holdings beyond the currently challenging office category by acquiring a prominent firm focused on healthcare properties.

The two companies, both based in Newton, Massachusetts, said on Tuesday they reached a definitive agreement under which OPI will acquire all outstanding stock of Diversified Healthcare Trust. OPI will be the surviving entity in the merger and plans to change its name to Diversified Properties Trust on closing of the all-share transaction, a Diversified Healthcare statement said.

The agreement calls for DHC shareholders to receive 0.147 shares of OPI for each common share of DHC, subject to approval of both companies’ shareholders and other customary closing conditions. The combined company will be led by the current OPI executive management team, including executives of OPI parent firm RMR Group.

“Strategically, the combined company will be in immediate compliance with debt covenants, have immediate access to multiple capital sources through its greater scale and diversity to address upcoming debt maturities,” while increasing liquidity, DHC CEO Jennifer Francis said in a statement.

DHC’s portfolio was valued at about $7.1 billion, including 379 properties in 36 states and Washington, D.C., as of Dec. 31, 2022. OPI owned 160 properties in 30 states and D.C. at the end of 2022 and is part of a larger RMR Group portfolio that includes more than $37 billion in assets under management. 

Office Attendance Edges Lower

Big cities on average had office attendance at 48.5% of pre-pandemic levels in the week that ended April 5, according to the latest tracking by Kastle Systems. The security technology firm’s “Back to Work Barometer,” based on anonymous keycard data from clients’ office properties, showed the 10-city average falling slightly below the previous week’s 49% level.

Attendance reached a peak average of 50.4% in late January and since returned to 50.1% in late February and early March, but barometer readings have been below 50% of pre-pandemic levels for most of the past three years.

There have also been a wide range of attendance numbers among the barometer cities, with usual front-runner Austin, Texas, posting a 63.6% figure in the latest tracking while tech-heavy San Jose, California, the laggard in most weeks, had attendance at 37.1% of pre-pandemic levels.

Austin was followed in the latest tracking by Houston at 60.9%, Dallas at 53.7%, Chicago at 47.6% and Los Angeles at 47.1%.